By Samuel Getachew

Tensions are once again flaring in the northern Tigray region after the National Electoral Board of Ethiopia (NEBE) took the dramatic step of deregistering the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) on May 14, raising the specter of renewed conflict in a region still healing from a devastating civil war.

The board stated that the once-dominant political party had failed to comply with a list of corrective measures, including the requirement to hold a general assembly. Internal disputes and a widening split between moderate and hardline factions have paralyzed the TPLF’s leadership, pushing the region further into instability just a year after a landmark peace agreement was supposed to bring long-term reconciliation.

Founded nearly 50 years ago, the TPLF had been at the heart of Ethiopia’s political establishment for decades, and its leadership in the Ethiopian People’s Revolutionary Democratic Front (EPRDF) coalition made it a powerhouse. However, the recent decision to strip it of its legal status has been described by its leaders as a violation of the Pretoria Peace Agreement, signed in 2022 to end a two-year conflict between federal and Tigrayan forces.

“Beyond the cessation of hostilities, the agreement was intended to serve as a building block for sustainable peace by addressing the root causes of the conflict,” the TPLF wrote in an open letter to former Kenyan President Uhuru Kenyatta, who helped broker the peace deal.

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“This erosion of commitment has culminated in classifying the TPLF – a principal signatory to the accord – as an illegal political party … an act that fundamentally violates the validity and integrity of the Pretoria Agreement,” it continued.

Signs of disintegration

The situation in Tigray is spiraling out of control. Earlier this year, Tigray’s interim regional President Getachew Reda fled to Addis Ababa, alleging that TPLF hardliners were plotting a coup against him. Reports indicate that towns such as Adigrat, the region’s second-largest city, were forcibly taken from the interim government. Debretsion Gebremichae is one of the leaders of the TPLF, which is now in charge of Tigray. Federal troops have been called in to stabilize the situation.

The new hardline leadership has accused Reda of betraying Tigray’s interests, including disbanding its regional army, which played a key role in the war against federal forces. In an unexpected twist, Reda – now an advisor to Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed on East African Affairs – has launched a new political movement to challenge the TPLF, citing corruption and internal decay.

Humanitarian crisis deepens

The Tigray War – fought from 2020 to 2022 – left deep scars: hundreds of thousands dead, millions displaced, and the region’s economy and infrastructure in ruins. According to the World Health Organization, over 80 percent of healthcare facilities in Tigray were destroyed during the war. The justice system remains paralyzed, with more than 120,000 survivors of sexual violence still awaiting redress.

An ongoing famine affects over 3.4 million people, and 6 million people in total require urgent food aid, according to international relief agencies. Ethiopia’s internal unrest has discouraged foreign investors, further undermining the region’s already fragile economy.

Fragile region on edge

Tigray’s future is complicated by disputed territories with neighboring Amhara and Eritrea. The Irob minority population remains split by unresolved border issues. According to Tigrayan officials, 40 percent of their region is controlled by “external sources.”

Compounding the tension are allegations of corruption, human smuggling, and illegal mining, which have led to internal clashes within the ruling factions. Neighboring Eritrea, which sided with hardliners during the war, remains a destabilizing force as tensions increase.

The central government in Addis Ababa is struggling to contain multiple hotspots of unrest, including Oromia and Amhara, where violence and displacement are ongoing.